Topic: Michael Mauboussin
2 posts tagged “Michael Mauboussin”.
The Outside View: Base Rates Beat Forecasts
Detailed, company-specific forecasts feel rigorous but are systematically overconfident. Michael Mauboussin's fix is to start from the base rate — what usually happens to businesses like this one — and adjust from there.
Expectations Investing: What Is the Price Already Saying?
Instead of asking what a stock is worth, Michael Mauboussin asks what the current price already assumes about the future — then whether those assumptions are too optimistic or too pessimistic.