From Megatrend to Position: A Complete Process

"Growth is inherent and integral to value — a lot of value comes from future growth. The aim is to find companies on the cusp of a growth phase, before the market has priced it in." — Ravi Dharamshi

Dharamshi's framework adds two stages ahead of the usual fundamentals–valuation–timing model, giving a five-step process:

1. Megatrend. Is there a structural tailwind that is large, durable and not yet consensus? The test is not "will this industry grow?" but "is this shift big enough to sustain compounding for a decade, and has the market not yet priced it?"
2. Inflection point. Has something changed that makes now the right moment — unit economics turning, regulation aligning, adoption crossing a threshold? This activates deep research; it is not yet the buy signal.
3. Scale. Is this the right vehicle? A scalable business with a sustainable advantage, a long runway and strong execution. This is where moat analysis and quality checks are applied — only businesses that pass move on.
4. Valuation. At inflection points the market often still prices the past. The opportunity is that fundamentals are about to step-change while the valuation reflects the old trajectory.
5. Entry and sizing. Once trend, inflection, quality and valuation all line up, size the position for the conviction you genuinely have.

Illustrative example: an energy transition

A country's shift to renewable energy can be a multi-decade megatrend; the inflection arrives when costs fall below those of fossil fuels and policy aligns. Businesses building the necessary infrastructure may still be priced on pre-inflection earnings, ignoring the expansion ahead. The framework is a way to be early and disciplined — not a prediction about any particular sector.